Erratic Price Action in Anticipation of the FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Anthony Speciale
- Aug 21, 2024
- 4 min read
Hey Trader,
The Greatest Asset in Trading and Life
In the world of trading, knowledge and strategy are invaluable. Yet, even with the best insights and the strongest conviction, there’s something even more essential:
"If I have the gift of prophecy and can fathom all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have a faith that can move mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing."
- 1 Corinthians 13:2
No matter how skilled we become, it's love—love for what we do, love for others, and love for the journey—that truly enriches our lives.
As you navigate the markets, remember that the greatest investments are not just in profits but in the way we treat those around us. Wishing you success in all that you do!
Be Relentless In Pursuit Of The Will
Which God Has Set Upon Your Heart,
Anthony Speciale
Erratic Price Action In Anticipation Of The FOMC Meeting Minutes
As retail traders, we all know that not every day is going to present the perfect trading opportunity. Some days, the market just doesn't cooperate. Today was one of those days.
In this recap, we'll dive into the challenges faced during this morning’s live futures market session, the importance of adapting your strategy to the current market conditions, and how to keep your trading edge sharp, even when the market isn't giving you ideal setups.
Tough Market Conditions: What We Faced Today
This morning’s trading session was anything but straightforward.
From the start, I made it clear to everyone in the room that today might not be the most favorable day to trade.
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM, the market was in a holding pattern, waiting for any clues that could signal the next big move.
In addition to the anticipation of the FOMC minutes, there was a revision in unemployment numbers that added to the uncertainty.
These factors combined to create a market environment where price action was choppy and indecisive—far from the trending opportunities we typically seek out.
Recognizing When Not to Trade
One of the most important lessons in trading is knowing when not to trade.
It’s easy to get caught up in the need to be active in the market, but sometimes, sitting on the sidelines is the smartest move.
This morning, I stressed to the group that the market was likely to spend most of the day waiting for the 2:00 PM announcement, which meant we were unlikely to see strong, directional moves.
Sure enough, the market reflected that caution.
While there was some movement, particularly a nice sell-off in crude oil, the overall momentum was lacking.
Even the inventory report at 10:30 AM, which briefly spiked prices, failed to sustain any momentum, and the market quickly turned back to its choppy behavior.
Partially Filled Short Play At Resistance
8/21/2024 @ 0915 ET. - [CLV24]
Short 30 @ 73.70, Cover 10 @ 73.45, Stop 20 @ 73.65
Adapting Your Strategy to Market Conditions
In conditions like these, it’s essential to adjust your trading strategy.
Today, instead of looking for the big, trending moves that we usually aim for, I focused on smaller, more tactical trades—scalps that could take advantage of the brief moments of momentum.
I took a few scalps during the session, carefully managing my risk and taking profits where I could.
One of these trades, which I recorded, will be included in the blog post so you can see exactly how I managed it—where I entered, where I took profits, and how I advanced my stop to protect my position.
Ultimately, I got stopped out after only taking partial profits, but that’s part of trading.
The key takeaway here is that I went into the day with realistic expectations, based on the market conditions, and adjusted my strategy accordingly.
The Importance of a Solid Trade Plan
Days like today underscore the importance of having a solid trade plan that accounts for different market conditions.
Your trade plan should be flexible enough to allow for adjustments when the market isn’t behaving as expected.
Whether it’s reducing your position size, tightening your stops, or focusing on smaller, quick-hit trades, your plan should guide you through these challenging periods.
One resource that I believe is crucial for navigating these kinds of days is access to comprehensive market analysis tools.
In our LIVE Trading Room, we provide access to liquidity data, bookmaps, and other resources that can give you an edge.
While I prefer to trade with a clean, naked chart, I always recommend that traders—whether they’re new or experienced—keep one screen dedicated to market references, while another remains clear.
This setup allows you to maintain a clear view of the market, free from the clutter of indicators that can sometimes cloud your judgment.
Embrace the Learning Opportunities
Today’s session was a reminder that not every day will provide those beautiful trending opportunities we all love. But that doesn’t mean the day is wasted.
There’s value in every session, even the tough ones. It’s an opportunity to refine your strategy, to learn how to adapt, and to strengthen your discipline.
Remember, trading isn’t just about the days when everything goes right. It’s about how you handle the days when things don’t go as planned.
Stay informed, stay focused and stay disciplined ! ! !
Thank you for reading, and I look forward to seeing you in our next session . . .
God bless, and have a wonderful day!
If you have any questions or need further guidance, please don't hesitate . . . info@specialeanalysis.com May the markets be ever in your favor!
Happy Trading,
Speciale Analysis
About the Author:
Anthony Speciale is a seasoned market analyst with over 13 years of experience trading. Through his platform, Speciale Analysis, he offers in-depth market analysis, interpretation, and expectations designed to help all types of traders, at every skill levels reach their full potential.
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NOTE: Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to approach it with a well-defined strategy and a disciplined mindset. This blog post is intended for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making an financial decisions. For further risk related information, please refer to: www.specialeanalysis.com/disclaimer
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