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Hey Trader,
Patience in Trading and Faith
In both trading and life, patience is key. Remember, timing matters not only in the markets but also in God's plan for us.
Trust that, just as market conditions take time to align, God's timing is always perfect. Stay patient and faithful—your breakthrough will come at the right moment.
Be Relentless In Pursuit Of The Will Which God Has Set Upon Your Heart,
Anthony Speciale
EIA Inventory Report Applies Pressure To Energy Prices
Welcome to today's market recap!
This morning's live session was packed with valuable lessons, as we encountered significant market choppiness driven by global events and economic reports.
Whether you're new to trading or have some experience under your belt, there's always something to learn from how the market reacts to major news and how we as traders adapt. Let’s dive into what transpired and how we approached trading today.
Geopolitical Events Create Uncertainty
The market was in a volatile state following a missile attack by Iran on Israel.
Whenever geopolitical events of this magnitude occur, the market tends to react unpredictably as traders and investors scramble to understand the potential fallout.
Questions about U.S. involvement and whether this could escalate into a broader conflict were swirling around, creating uncertainty.
As a trader, it's crucial not to get swept up in the noise. The key is to stick to your plan and rely on the price action to guide your decisions. Regardless of the rumors or speculation, your edge comes from trading what you see, not what you hear.
As I always say: Let the price meet your trade plan. If it doesn't, sit on the sidelines.
ADP Numbers and the Crude Oil Inventory Report
Today’s session wasn’t just influenced by geopolitics. We had two key data releases: ADP employment numbers and the weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report.
ADP numbers dropped at 8:15 AM, but they didn’t produce the kind of market reaction that would justify any significant trades early on.
The crude oil market, in particular, was extremely choppy before the inventory report, which came out at 10:30 AM.
The report revealed a much larger-than-expected build in crude oil inventories.
This was bearish for crude oil prices, and as expected, the market finally saw a more decisive move to the downside following the report.
This was a key moment where we identified a potential trend and began looking for opportunities to capitalize on the selling pressure.
Managing Trades in Uncertain Conditions
Despite the eventual selloff, the session was tricky to navigate.
I took three trades during the morning, all while being cautious about potential news hitting the market unexpectedly.
In volatile markets, sudden news events can drastically alter price action in an instant, and it’s important to protect your capital in these situations.
Here’s a breakdown of how I managed those trades:
First Trade: I entered based on a potential continuation of the selloff but was stopped out at breakeven. My goal here was to minimize risk quickly due to the uncertainty.
Second and Third Trades: These trades allowed me to lock in partial profits, though I was still stopped out before reaching full target potential. Once again, I was aggressive in moving my stops to ensure I didn’t give back profits in such an unstable environment.
Finally, the last trade I executed during the selloff wasn't recorded, as I was fully focused on monitoring the price action.
Key Levels and Volume Analysis
Much of today’s action centered around key levels. We identified a significant volume area at 72.21, where there was a notable struggle to break higher.
A double top formed earlier in the morning around 7 AM, and after failing to reclaim this level, the market ultimately began its descent.
Once the market broke below VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), the selloff gained momentum. We saw a solid retest of VWAP before the move continued downward, hitting several important levels we had mapped out during the session.
These volume levels and the VWAP serve as critical tools in identifying turning points and guiding trade entries.
Conservative Trade Management in Volatility
Given the uncertain conditions, I adopted a highly conservative approach.
When volatility increases, the size of candles can expand significantly, which in turn increases your risk.
This is why I moved my stops into breakeven or profit territory as quickly as possible after entering a trade.
You don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of a massive move. While volatility does present opportunities, it’s important to approach it with caution.
The bigger the price swings, the more careful you have to be about trade management.
I focused on tightening my risk, advancing stops, and making sure I wasn’t overexposed in a market that could turn on a dime.
Order Flow and Execution Strategy
By analyzing where significant buy and sell orders were coming into the market, I could identify key moments to enter trades with minimal risk.
The goal is always to take a position with a tight stop, allowing me to either lock in quick gains or exit the market with minimal loss if the trade moves against me.
Order flow analysis is something I highly recommend retail traders add to their toolkit, as it provides insights into where large players are placing their orders and can give you an edge in timing your trades.
Final Thoughts
Today was a prime example of how uncertain conditions can create both challenges and opportunities.
While we faced geopolitical risks and choppy price action early in the session, the inventory report provided some clarity, allowing us to profit from a short-term selloff in crude oil.
For retail traders, the key takeaway here is to remain patient, follow your trade plan, and be cautious in volatile conditions.
Remember, there’s no shame in sitting out when the market isn’t providing clear signals, and protecting your capital should always be the top priority.
Stay informed, stay focused and stay disciplined ! ! !
Thank you for reading, and I look forward to seeing you in our next session . . .
God bless, and have a wonderful day!
If you have any questions or need further guidance, please don't hesitate . . . info@specialeanalysis.com May the markets be ever in your favor!
Happy Trading,
Speciale Analysis
About the Author:
Anthony Speciale is a seasoned market analyst with over 13 years of experience trading. Through his platform, Speciale Analysis, he offers in-depth market analysis, interpretation, and expectations designed to help all types of traders, at every skill levels reach their full potential.
Analysis, Interpretation & Expectations
Day, Swing & Position Trade Analysis
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NOTE: Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to approach it with a well-defined strategy and a disciplined mindset. This blog post is intended for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making an financial decisions. For further risk related information, please refer to: www.specialeanalysis.com/disclaimer
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