top of page

Can OPEC Regain Lost Ground Against U.S. Shale?

Writer's picture: Anthony SpecialeAnthony Speciale

Hey Trader,


Can OPEC Regain Lost Ground Against U.S. Shale?


In the ever-evolving landscape of the oil market, OPEC finds itself facing challenges that go beyond the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East. As the group grapples with maintaining market equilibrium, recent developments suggest a struggle to regain lost market share, particularly against the relentless rise of U.S. shale production.


The most recent meeting of OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) made headlines by maintaining the status quo, refraining from recommending changes to the group's oil output targets for the quarter. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia announced the cancellation of plans to boost capacity to 13 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision raises questions about the dynamics of oil demand, the effectiveness of production increases, and the ongoing competition with non-OPEC entities.


The shift in Saudi Arabia's plans prompts speculation: Is OPEC losing ground to U.S. shale as the group strives to achieve a balanced market? Over the past few years, while OPEC sought to curb production, the United States quietly ramped up crude production from 11 million bpd in January 2021 to the current 13 million bpd.


Comparing the numbers paints a revealing picture. In January 2021, OPEC's total production stood at 25.5 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia contributing 9.1 million bpd. Fast forward to the present, and OPEC's production has risen to 26.7 million bpd—a modest increase of 1.2 million bpd. However, Saudi Arabia's production has declined to 9 million bpd within the same timeframe.



It's evident that OPEC has lost market share to the United States. Saudi Arabia's decision to forgo additional capacity indicates a lack of immediate need, and OPEC's efforts to lift prices have inadvertently fueled the resurgence of U.S. shale production. Despite arguments from shale players about fiscal responsibility, the global market now seems less responsive to OPEC's traditional fear-mongering tactics aimed at propping up prices.


Adding to OPEC's challenges, the Biden Administration's strategic release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) barrels has further eroded the group's market share. This move occurred precisely when OPEC was attempting to create a significant market deficit to hasten global drawdowns.



While OPEC remains optimistic about oil demand, regaining lost market share without causing a price collapse poses a considerable dilemma. Managing expectations and carefully planning production increases will likely be part of the group's strategy leading up to the next meeting. Meanwhile, U.S. shale is expected to continue its gradual encroachment on OPEC's territory, leaving the group in a complex and challenging position.


In the intricate dance between OPEC and U.S. shale, the next moves will determine who holds the upper hand in shaping the future of the global oil market. Stay tuned for updates and insights as these dynamics unfold.


To Big Profits and Beyond,

Anthony Speciale


11 views0 comments

Comments


Commenting has been turned off.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved

The Speciale Foundation Corp.     -     ASJR Enterprises, LLC     -     Speciale Analysis     -     Speciale Venture Capital LLC     -     A&T Auto Repair, Inc.

By engaging in this site, emails, videos, social, purchasing or subscribing to products or services you are acknowledging complete disclaimer!

Complete Legal Disclaimer, Terms Of Use, Conditions and Privacy Policy Can Be See @ www.anthonyspeciale.com/disclaimer

By submitting this form or any form and/or contacting us in any manner, you Agree with and Understand all Disclaimers within complete site:

 

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer Stock, Futures, Forex & Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and it is not appropriate for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to speculate in the Stocks, Futures, Forex, and Options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell any securities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

CFTC RULE 4.41 Hypothetical or simulated performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Cryptocurrency Trading Cryptocurrencies on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before getting involved in Cryptocurrency trading you should carefully consider your personal venture objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial deposit and therefore you should not place funds that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Cryptocurrency trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The information contained on this web page does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any Cryptocurrency contract or securities of any type. Dyno Trading will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options, ETF’s and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, ETF’s and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  NO FINANCIAL, INVESTING OR TRADING ADVICE OFFERED.

Hypothetical Results Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations - unless noted otherwise that an image or any material discloses live money was used, results displayed or openly discussed are to be assumed simulated for educational purposes only. No live money brokerage accounts will be traded or displayed by request or otherwise.  Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs, in general, are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN ALL TRADING. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ALL RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL. NO IMPLICATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANYONE UTILIZING ANY OF THE SERVICES OF DYNO TRADING HAS OR CAN OBTAIN SUCH PROFITS AND RESULTS. THIS INFORMATION IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL AT THIS TIME, BUT MERELY A PRESENTATION OF TRADING STRATEGIES. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED RELIABLE, BUT IS NOT GUARANTEED AS TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS. WE ARE SOFTWARE MARKETERS AND EDUCATORS ONLY. UNDERSTAND THAT TRADING OF ANY KIND IF RISKY AND YOU NEED TO CHECK WITH YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR TO DETERMINE IF TRADING IS FOR YOU.

UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES WILL THE COMPANY BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SUBJECT MATTER OF THE AGREEMENT, LOSS OF DATA OR LOST PROFITS, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT SUCH DAMAGES COULD HAVE BEEN FORESEEN OR PREVENTED.

Educational Purposes. All software materials and presentation materials are for educational purposes only. The information contained on this website or in any product or service that Speciale Analysis provides does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. Speciale Analysis will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. All Product Demos are distributed to potential customers via Video Screencast demonstrating the Software features.

You should fully understand the risks associated with trading futures, options, ETF’s and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions (“Forex”) before making any trades. Trading futures, options, ETF’s and Forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  NO FINANCIAL, INVESTING OR TRADING ADVICE OFFERED.

Copyright Notice: Images Unless Noted Otherwise Have Been Sourced From GOOGLE IMAGES, FOREX FACTORY, TRADING VIEW, OIL PRICE or have received written or verbal consent for use - this applies to all pages of this website, emails, marketing materials and/or social media posts.  

By submitting your information you are opting in to receive email promotions and text messages from us and you agree and acknowledge that you have read and agree to the terms of using this website, receipt of email offers, registration reminders and other communications mentioned here

​Clients are required to self-manage their reoccurring PayPal subscriptions - Speciale Analysis will not be held liable for any aspects of this task.

ALL SALES ARE FINAL - NO REFUNDS - NO PRORATES - NO EXCHANGES - NO CREDITS - NO EXCEPTIONS - NO EXCUSES - NO GUARANTEES - ENGAGE AT YOUR OWN RISK

bottom of page