Bearish Risks Remain Despite a Tight Oil Market
- Anthony Speciale
- Jul 23, 2024
- 4 min read
Updated: Jul 27, 2024
Hey Trader,
Bearish Risks Remain Despite a Tight Oil Market
The oil market has been a rollercoaster this week, with prices declining despite rising geopolitical risks. The market’s focus seems to be on Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race, overshadowing other significant developments. This scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for traders, making it an ideal time to seek professional guidance. Our upcoming Training Webinar will provide you with the tools and strategies you need to navigate these turbulent waters effectively.
Despite the bearish sentiment driven by political uncertainty in the United States, the Asian oil market is showing signs of recovery. The region’s main benchmark grade, Dubai, had weakened significantly against Brent and WTI, but recent trading activity suggests a turnaround. China’s state-owned oil companies, Unipec and PetroChina, have ramped up spot purchases of Middle Eastern oil, set to arrive in September and October. This move comes after a disappointing June performance and signals a potential boost in demand.
Chinese buyers have nominated the lowest Saudi Arabian volumes since March 2020 at 36 million barrels for July. However, resurgent nominations for August, at 44 million barrels, and increased spot trading activity indicate an improving outlook. Furthermore, China might increase crude imports to meet Beijing’s mandate to add 60 million barrels of oil to newly built strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) storage sites across the country. This potential increase in demand could support oil prices in the coming months.
On the corporate front, major oil companies are making strategic moves. Shell and ExxonMobil have sold their NAM Offshore joint venture in the Dutch North Sea to Canada’s Tenaz Energy for $180 million. Meanwhile, Colombia’s state oil firm Ecopetrol is in talks with Occidental Petroleum to buy a 30% stake in shale producer CrownRock in a deal worth $3.6 billion. Additionally, Argentina’s state oil firm YPF is negotiating with US midstream major Energy Transfer regarding potential financing for a cross-country oil pipeline that would connect the Vaca Muerta shale play to the coast.
The global oil market remains in a state of flux. US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the re-election campaign has confused the market, causing oil prices to weaken to their lowest in a month. Despite potentially bullish signals like Israel’s attack on Yemen and China cutting short-term interest rates, prices have not responded as expected.
In addition, geopolitical events continue to influence the market. The Ceres I VLCC tanker collision and its subsequent fleeing to the South China Sea, where it was detained by Malaysian authorities, highlights the risks associated with oil transportation. Meanwhile, China’s increased imports of Russian crude, despite a year-on-year drop in Saudi Arabian oil imports, underscore shifting trade dynamics.
ExxonMobil has fully exited Malaysia’s upstream sector, selling its assets to state oil firm Petronas. This move marks the end of Exxon’s more than 130-year presence in the country. The US Federal Trade Commission has extended its OPEC probe to include executives from Occidental, Hess, and Diamondback, citing potential collusion.
In other significant developments, Woodside Energy has agreed to buy US LNG developer Tellurian for $1.2 billion, taking over the Driftwood LNG project. Turkey is set to explore for oil in Somalia, deploying the Oruc Reis surveying vessel after signing a military pact and obtaining three exploration blocks. The European Commission is introducing anti-dumping duties on biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil from China, although sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) was not included.
The Biden administration has renewed a waiver allowing Iraq to import natural gas and electricity from Iran, and QatarEnergy has signed a deal with Chevron to purchase a 20% stake in Suriname’s Block 5 production sharing contract. Hedge funds have turned bullish on gold, with net long positions reaching a four-year high. In Nigeria, the government is investigating allegations of dirty fuels after accusations against the Dangote refinery.
The energy market is complex and ever-changing. To make sense of these developments and identify profitable trading opportunities, it’s crucial to have expert guidance. Our Training Webinar is designed to equip you with the insights and strategies needed to navigate these challenging times.
Don’t miss this opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and enhance your trading skills. Register now for our Training Webinar and take the first step towards mastering the energy market. Your journey to becoming a successful trader starts here.
Register now for our Training Webinar and unlock the secrets to profitable trading in the energy market.
Your journey to becoming a successful trader starts here.
Happy Trading,
Anthony Speciale
Speciale Analysis
About the Author:
Anthony Speciale is a seasoned market analyst with over 13 years of experience trading. Through his platform, Speciale Analysis, he offers in-depth market analysis, interpretation, and expectations designed to help all types of traders, at every skill levels reach their full potential.
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